UConn is just about as one dimensional as I’ve ever seen them.  Kemba Walker is absolutely unstoppable.  The rest of the Huskies though, are extremely beatable.  Walker could drain a three in triple coverage and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit.  So why then with the game on the line did Corey Stokes guard him like it was the first play of the game…alone? Yes Isaiah Armwood was on his way over when he took the shot but if there’s one thing I learned yesterday it’s that right now Armwood is a great rebounder and that’s it. He’s as one dimensional as the UConn team. Don’t get me wrong, he’s young and talented and I think could be a real contributor down the road, but why was he given the all-important task of helping Stokes double Walker? He’s simply not ready to play with the game on the line.

OK, enough about our lackluster play in the last six seconds. There were highlights and deserved or not UConn is the 8th ranked team in the land. Corey Fisher for example actually bested Kemba Walker on his way to 28 points on 10 for 22 shooting and three from downtown.  One last criticism if I may; on the list of all-time stupid plays has to be the asinine attempt at an alley-oop at the end of the half. Corey, you’re a senior.  You’re playing a TIGHT game where every single point matters and you give MAURICE SUTTON an out of control pass like that. Absolutely irresponsible for a senior. I’ve been told by many to cut him a break, and if we lost by four or five I could, but that is simply unacceptable from a senior leader. OK, I’m done now…

Aside from Fisher’s dominance on the score line the rest of the team was kept fairly quiet by some very tight UConn defense. Maalik Wayns added 9 points and 2 assists to his season total and Mouphtau Yarou and  Antonio Pena ended the afternoon with 8 each. Corey Stokes was  only able to muster 3 points, all of which came from the foul line.  Whether it was an off day or superior defense focused on Stokes it would have been a very different afternoon if he got anywhere close to his season average.

Also sorely missed of course was Dominic Cheek who could have provided a little fire off the bench.  The good news is the MRI was negative and with no tears to any ligament or meniscus he could be back pretty soon.  Either way, here’s to a full and speedy recovery to him.

Also of note was some very focused defensive play early in the game. Our shots were not falling but some good pressure on the Huskies kept the game from spinning out of control in the first eight minutes. While UConn’s defense was equally as stifling; Villanova kept the Huskies to just under 36% from the field for the game.  Not bad!

The team also did a much better job of protecting the ball with only eight turnovers. A stat like that will go a long way in the Big East slug-fest.

So yes, the sky is not falling. There’s a lot of work left to do and plenty of opportunities to get those marquee Big East wins (like this Saturday). Still, yesterdays loss is frustrating. We were so close and “easily” could have won.  But onward and upward! Two teams will be trying to avenge their last loss this Saturday at the Carrier Dome. I’ll be making my first trip up there so apologies in advance for any delayed postings.

Coming off a two-day rest and traveling, the #7 Wildcats, led by Corey Fisher‘s season high 28-points couldn’t keep pace as Kemba Walker drained a layup with 2.5 seconds left to ultimately give the #8 Huskies a 61-59 win.

Despite starting the game down 0-10 and missing their first 10 shots, Villanova got on the board four and a half minutes into the game thanks to a Maalik Wayns layup. But the tides turned and  the Huskies went ice-cold after that, making just 3 buckets from the field for the balance of the half. Villanova outpaced UConn to have the lead, 22-21 at halftime

In a toughly defensive-minded matchup, both teams shot marginally below average; 35.7% for ‘Nova. 34.7% for UConn. But the edge, in the close game came from Connecticut’s 2 extra 3-pointers and their +6 rebound margin.

After Walker missed two free-throws while being up two with 34 seconds left. Fisher drained 2 free throws to even the game and putting the ball in the Huskies’ possession for Walker’s final game winning drive and layup.

Villanova now heads to the Carrier Dome to take on #3 Syracuse on Saturday. Tipoff is slated for 12p.

Note:  The Closest to the Pin Results are now posted.  Click here to see the game winners and our updated leader board.

Box Score

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The 9th-ranked Huskies were among the last few undefeated teams in the country before losing their Big East opener to a 1-loss Pitt team that looks better and better every day.  They followed that loss up with a loss to Notre Dame last week.

They recovered with a win over 12th-ranked Texas and then won against Rutgers and on the road at DePaul this weekend.

Villanova will be the first challenge in a stretch for the Huskies that will ultimately either confirm that they are a top-10 team or expose their weaknesses for good. Villanova, on the other hand, is already in the midst of such a stretch with UConn being followed closely by a visit to Syracuse.

The Huskies aren’t as strong defensively as Maryland was on Saturday. KenPom.com gives their defense a ranking of 45th in the country. Offensively, however, they have been much better, rated 23rd, and much of that has been thanks to Kemba Walker.

Walker is a leading candidate for National Player of the Year, and he will be a handful for the ‘Cats defense to control. Luckily, a group of athletic guards on the Villanova will help to counteract, or at least slow Kemba down.

Other than Walker’s 25.6 points per game, only 6’9″ sophomore forward Alex Oriakhi has averaged 10 points or more with 10.9 points per game. Both freshmen guard Shabazz Napier and forward Jeremy Lamb have had notable double-digit scoring games, but neither has stepped up to become a consistent third option for the Huskies.

Oriakhi is the team’s leading rebounder with an average of 9.2 per game and he also leads the team in blocked shots with 2.4 per game. Freshman Roscoe Smith adds 1.6 blocks while Charles Okwandu blocks 1.5 shots per game. UConn has been one of the best teams in the country for blocking shots, so the ‘Cats will have to be wary of their front court.

This is a game where the ‘Cats backcourt will have to control Kemba Walker. They will likely be without Dominic Cheek in that effort after a knee injury took him out of the Maryland game. About the injury, Coach Wright told reporters:

I have a feeling it’s serious, just because of all the hours I’ve spent with Jeff [Pierce, Villanova’s trainer]. Usually, he’ll say, “Ah, maybe,” but not this time. He said, “No way.” I haven’t talked to (Pierce), but I just know Jeff and I have a feeling it’s serious.

If Cheek is not available on Monday, freshman James Bell will take on most of the extra minutes in the backcourt, while you may also expect a bigger role to be played by the frontcourt. Isaiah Armwood pulled down 13 boards to lead the team against Maryland, and could be relied upon to help counter the Huskies’ bigs. Maurice Sutton will also be available again with his disciplinary suspension over.

Walker is the key to UConn’s success. Without an effective performance from him on the offensive side of the ball, the Huskies will struggle. With that set-up, the Huskies look less like a pack than a lone wolf.

The game will tip off in Storrs, CT (Gampel Pavilion) at 3:30pm on Monday. The game will be available nationally on ESPN.

Don’t forget to get your votes in for Ed’s Closest to the Pin contest.

UPDATE 3pm: Dominic Cheek’s injury has been described as a “knee sprain.” He will have an MRI on the knee in the morning and will not make the trip to Connecticut with the team.

Update:  Game Results

REMINDER:  Under the contest rules, winners are determined without regard to whether the contestant correctly picked the winning team (we don’t want to tempt a Nova fan to improve their chances of winning by voting against the Cats) based on the smallest absolute difference between the predicted scores and the actual scores.

VUHoops vs. Vegas:  Based on the average predicted scores of the VUHoops Crowd and the posted Vegas line, we would have won $200 by betting Villanova +2.5 and betting the under.  The details follow.  We’re now +$800 for the season.

Leader Board After 18 Rounds

Update:  Monday, January 17 (Game Time). A total of 76 VUHoops readers posted predictions, with 15 picking the Huskies to win.  As a group, the readers see ‘Nova winning by a score of 75-73 (a margin of 2.0 points and implied over/under of 145).  The Vegas odds makers are picking Connecticut to win by 2.5 points and set the over/under at 146 points, implying a final score of 72-74.  KenPom.com’s model also is predicting a Nova loss by one point with a score of 72-73.

SCATTER PLOT OF PREDICTED SCORES

Window Opening: Sunday, January 16 (8:00 AM). The window is now open for readers to post their predicted final scores for ‘Nova’s game at. Connecticut on Monday, January 17 at 3:30 PM (Storrs, ESPN) in our Closest to the Pin Contest.  After seventeen rounds, we have a three-way time for first place among Hugh Jass, Joe and Pat ’12, each with 13.5 points.  Click here to see our full leader board.  In our VUHoops vs. Vegas competition, VUHoops is up $600.

The #7 Cats (16-1, 4-0) had an RPI of 11, a SOS of 61 and are scoring an average of 77.6 PPG while giving up an average of 62.0 PPG. The #10 Huskies (14-2, 3-2) have an RPI of 10, a SOS of 30, and score an average of 76.6 PPG while allowing an average of 64.5 PPG. Connecticut’s more notable wins have come against Michigan State (+3), Kentucky (+17), South Florida (+5), Texas (+1) and Rutgers (+14). Their two losses have come against Pitt (-15) and Notre Dame (-3). Villanova and Connecticut have played two common opponents, South Florida, with ‘Nova winning away (+12) and Connecticut winning at home (+5), and Rutgers, with ‘Nova winning at home (+16) and Connecticut winning at home (+14). As of Friday, KenPom.com’s model was picking Nova to lose by a score of 73-72. More statistical information about Connecticut is available at Statsheet.com.

Be sure to check out Brian’s game preview.

Special Note: When posting predictions, please be sure to:

• List your predicted score for Villanova first, followed by the score for the opponent (e.g., Cats 100, Owls 75)
• All future games (except Rivalry Games), points are awarded to winners as follows: Bulls-eye = 10 points; Gold (non-bulls-eye) =5 pts; Silver = 3pts; Bronze = 1pt.
• Note the following rule change: given the extraordinary number of readers participating in the contest, we can no longer enforce our rule prohibiting duplicate score predictions.
• Use a consistent handle / ID so that we can keep an accurate running leader board over the course of the season. Obviously, score predictions posted by guests or anonymous readers cannot be accepted.

Here are ‘Nova’s dates…

• Jan. 17 Villanova at Connecticut 3:30 ESPN
• Feb. 21 Syracuse at Villanova 7:00 ESPN
• Feb. 28 Villanova at Notre Dame 7:00 ESPN

The Huskies were led by Kemba Walker who scored a career high 29 points. Although Connecticut bested Villanova in FG% (48.9% to 40.6%) the Wildcats shot respectably. The difference came from the charity stripe and on the boards. UConn shot 24 more Free Throws than ‘Nova, making 35 as opposed to VU’s 16. On the rebounding side, ‘Nova was outrebounded 36-22- the largest rebound difference this year for Jay Wright’s squad.

Scottie Reynolds led the way for Villanova with 18 points. Corey Fisher added 14 and big-man Antonio Pena had 10 before fouling out.

‘Nova (22-3, 11-2) moves into a ties for first with Syracuse in the conference. The Wildcats next play at Pittsburgh on Sunday.

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‘Nova is coming off Saturday’s 92-81 victory over Providence which was also at the Nova’s South Philly home. The Wildcats sit atop the BIG EAST by a half game as Syracuse lost this weekend to Louisville. Villanova’s last claim to the conference title was in 2006 when VU was co-champions with the Huskies.

The game also marks the return for Connecticut coach Jim Calhoun, who will return to the sidelines after being away for over 3 weeks.

The Huskies are led by Jerome Dyson who is averaging close to 19 points a game and Stanley Robinson who is grabbing 7.5 boards a game.

Villanova leads the all-time series against UConn, 32-27. Jay Wright, who won his 200th game as Nova’s leader this weekend, is 4-9 against the Huskies.

Exelon Energy will be providing renewable energy credits to create a “Green” Wachovia Center tonight.

Don’t forget to participate in Ed’s Closest to the Pin Contest!

Tipoff is slated for 7p. The game will be on ESPN. [Tickets]

The season began well for Connecticut with a 9-2 record heading into the Big East Season.  Their two losses had come at Duke (-9) and vs. Kentucky (-3).  They began the Big East season 3-4, but had an impressive 88-74 win over then #1 Texas.  Things went downhill since.  An undisclosed illness forced Jim Calhoun to the sidelines for almost four weeks.  Even the return of Calhoun has not helped, as the Huskies lost their most recent game against Cincinnati, 60-48 before a shocked home crowd.  Calhoun called it “one of the worst performances I’ve had here at UConn in 24 years.  I’m embarrassed by it, quite frankly.”

What went wrong?  Courtesy of Statsheet.com, here’s every possible statistic on the Huskies to give us a clue.

Team Statistics (Big East Conference Play)

Connecticut Player Statistics

Four Factors Key to Winning

Dean Oliver, one of the leading NBA and college basketball statisticians, has identified four factors that are the most important determinants of basketball success. They are:

1. Shooting the Ball Well (weighting = 40%), which is measured by effective field goal percentage (eFG%).  eFG% is like field goal percentage except that it gives 50% more credit for made three-pointers (since it accounts for more points).  The calculation is (0.5*3PTM + FGM) / FGA.
2. Taking Care of the Ball (weighting = 25%), which is measured by turnover percentage (TO%).  TO% is a pace-independent way to measure ball security. TO% = Turnovers / Possessions.
3. Offensive Rebounding (weighting = 20%), indicates a team’s ability to get second chance shots, which dramatically improves efficiency.  This is measured by offensive rebounding percentage (OR%). OR% = Offensive Rebounds / (Offensive Rebounds + Opponent Defensive Rebounds).
4. Getting to the Free Throw Line (weighting = 15%), is measured by Free Throw Rate (FT Rate). This isn’t just a measure of how many free throws a team makes, but the frequency in which they go to the line. FT Rate = Free Throws Attempted / Field Goals Attempted.

How does Connecticut do in these categories (with comparisons to Villanova)?

1. Shooting the Ball Well:  48.8% (Nova better at 53.4%)
2. Taking Care of the Ball:  21.4% (Nova better at 19.1%)
3. Offensive Rebounding:  36.9 (Nova better at 39.9)
4. Getting to the Free Throw Line:  44.5 (Nova same at 44.5)