Omar Samhan

Here are a few of the more interesting excerpts in the press about today’s game against St. Mary’s:

ESPN

“Yet, it’s hard to shake the bubbling feeling that all is not well at the Big East power Jay Wright built. The Wildcats have been spotty on and off the court for most of the last month.  They stumbled to a 2-5 finish. The Wildcats — most notably Reynolds — shot poorly and needed overtime to get past mid-major Robert Morris in the first round.”

“The Wildcats have the defense more appropriate for a team that couldn’t make the CBI field. They have no consistent interior presence and allowed 72.9 points per game — only Seton Hall and Providence were worse in the Big East. The Wildcats ranked 278th out of 334 Division I teams.”

“I know we weren’t favored to win, but apparently nobody expected us to win,” Saint Mary’s center Omar Samhan said. “I’ve had tons of e-mails and text messages, ‘I can’t believe you won, you messed up my bracket, but that’s great.’ “And that’s from my mom.”

“Saint Mary’s, which won the West Coast Conference, has the mammoth frontline in the 6-foot-11 Samhan and 6-11 Ben Allen that could give the Wildcats fits. Samhan had 29 points and 12 rebounds despite spending most of the Richmond game in foul trouble. The Gaels know going inside is their best chance at pulling off the second straight tournament upset.”

Philly.com 

“The taller Gaels beat undersized Richmond on Thursday – the first NCAA win for St. Mary’s since 1959 – and match up today against a sputtering Villanova team that looks ripe for the picking.”

“Don’t look now, but this is also the kind of team that gives the Wildcats serious trouble. The Gaels have a great big man in 6-foot-11 Omar Samhan, with 6-11 forward Ben Allen standing right next to him. Both are seniors. While Villanova was encouraged by the play of freshman Mouphtaou Yarou and Maurice Sutton in its opening win over Robert Morris, this tall order is a tall order.”

“You’ve got a school from an unknown small town, with five Australians on the roster and a frontcourt star who is a Muslim at a small Catholic school. A neat story, but c’mon.”

“We take pride in being a blue-collar team playing hard,” Samhan said. “The measure you can’t put on paper is how hard people want it, heart and determination. This team has a lot of it. We don’t have guys who can jump 40 inches in the air, but we have guys who will dive face-first out of bounds to get a ball. So, that’s why we are supposed to be here and we are a real team.”

“Jay Wright indicated yesterday he’s going to play Yarou and Sutton together at times to offset the height of St. Mary’s. That’s a perilous strategy, since it limits Villanova’s offense in some ways and, to be honest, because the second round of the NCAA tournament is a tough spot to try something brand new. “We’re going to try to play them and see how they do and make adjustments from there,” Wright said.”

Philadelphia Daily News

“Wright repeated his season-long axiom yesterday that his team already had overachieved, regardless of preseason rankings, or its red-hot start. But if Villanova loses today, he may be close to alone in that assessment.  Dissent is not limited to the outside, either. Success has transformed at least some in Nova Nation from nurturing to nasty.”

PhillyNews.com

“Wright, by the way, is 8-1 as a higher seed, 4-0 in the second round. At some point, it’s not about how you got here. Only that you did.”

“The Wildcats might not get to the Sweet 16 for the third consecutive season, and fifth in the last six. Maybe they’re just not good enough at the moment. Or perhaps the Gaels, who beat Gonzaga by 19 in last week’s West Coast Conference final and beat seventh-seed Richmond by nine in their tournament opener, are better. Seeds don’t mean anything anymore. And the Gaels, who hadn’t won an NCAA game since 1959, have the kind of inside-out game that can give certain teams fits. Possibly like Villanova.”

“We’re very happy to be alive another day,” Wright said. “We have a great Saint Mary’s team to play. You always dread these kind of teams . . . I haven’t figured out [why we've had problems in] the first round. Up until this point we’ve really just been worried about getting to the first round. So now that we’ve had some success and I think we have a pretty good team coming back next year, I really do want to look at that.”

Window Opening:  Saturday, March 20, 8:00 AM

So far this season, Villanova (25-7, #15 RPI) has scored an average of 82.2 points while holding their opponents to 72.8.  St. Mary’s (27-5, #34 RPI) has scored an average of 79.5 points while holding their opponents to 66.2.  St Mary’s, winners of six straight games (the last two over Gonzaga and Richmond) has an impressive record of 4-3 against Top 50 RPI Teams.  Here’s their full body of work this season, sorted by their opponents’ RPI:

You’ll remember the story from Ed’s look back at Villanova history that in 1985, Coach Rollie Massimino benched his starting lineup in the second half of a game at Pittsburgh at the end of the regular season. Villanova had been collapsing at the end of the 1985 season and Coach Massimino wasn’t happy with the team’s desire and commitment, so he benched all of them. Those ‘Cats narrowly escaped Pitt in the Big East Tournament before losing to St. John’s in the semi-final by 15.

That loss to St. John’s, as you know, was the Wildcat’s last loss of the season. The wins weren’t necessarily easy, one point separated the eight-seeded Wildcats and ninth-seeded Dayton, and three points was the margin of victory against Maryland. They won the championship with a score of 66-64.

Perhaps then Jay Wright was looking for a similar spark by benching team leaders Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher at the beginning of the first-round game. Neither player got into a groove when they finally got into the game. Perhaps he should have pulled this trick out of Rollie Massimino’s playbook a bit earlier in the season?

Fisher turned the ball over as many times as he got an assist, and only scored six points on four shots and  1-4 free throw shooting. Scottie Reynolds faired a bit better, scoring twenty points, but 15 of them came on free throws. He shot 13% from the floor and 12.5% from beyond the arc and looked very hesitant doing so. He turned the ball over four times and recorded only two assists.

In football there is a concept called “freezing the kicker” where a timeout is called before a field goal in an attempt to disrupt the kicker and hopefully cause a miss. This happens in other sports as well and perhaps it applies here too. By benching two players used to starting, did Jay Wright “freeze” them? Did the benching so disrupt their routine that it caused an abnormally poor performance?

Did the benching kill their confidence? Scottie often looked tentative on the offensive side of the ball, hesitating before taking shots that he would have normally went for. Fisher played ten more minutes than Taylor King, but shot the ball two fewer times.

There has also been a rumor circulating that the benching was the result of a feud between Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher. I would hope that this isn’t the case, but if so there is no doubt that some action needed to be taken. Hopefully that hasn’t been the problem plaguing the ‘Cats since the start of February.

Regardless of the cause, if the Wildcats are going to go anywhere in this tournament, they are going to need a better performance from these team leaders going forward. Hopefully any negative effects of “The Thing” don’t carry over to the next game.

———

Apparently my bold prediction of a win against Robert Morris upset a few people, perhaps more-so because of how the game ended up going. I understand your concern and I apologize for your distress… but we won.

More importantly: VUhoops is running a Blogathon for the Randy Foye Foundation, which you should absolutely check out.

Even though Senior Scottie Reynolds only made 2 of his first 15 shots, his clutch free throws at the end of the game kept ‘Nova alive and put the Wildcats into Overtime.

As we noted on our Twitter feed before tipoff, Reynolds did not start the game as a “teaching point” by Coach Wright. The Senior ended the game with 20 points.

Robert Morris was led by Karon Abraham who shot 5-11 from long distance and led the Colonials with 23 points.

The Wildcats only out-rebounded Robert Morris by 2 but forced 21 turnovers on the NEC champions.

Freshman big man Mouphtaou Yarou contributed 17 points and 8 rebounds. Taylor King added 10 points from the bench for ‘Nova in 15 minutes.

As a team, the Main Line squad only shot 27% from 3-Point Land and 35% from the field as a whole.

Villanova will play St. Mary’s College on Saturday in Providence. [Tickets]

It would probably even be a surprise if the Wildcats didn’t win this game in blowout fashion. Accuscore gives the Colonials only a 13% chance of winning. Regardless, you are going to watch. Why? For one or more of the following reasons: (1) You’re the kind of diehard that watched the Fordham and Delaware games, (2) You would never skip an NCAA tournament game or (3) You REALLY need the catharsis of watching the ‘Cats dominate an opponent.

The Colonials got the automatic bid from the Northeast Conference. They finished second in the regular season standings, but came on strong in the conference tournament to upset the top-team, Quinnipiac. This isn’t the Colonials’ first rodeo either, they won the NEC tournament last year as well, and this will be the school’s sixth appearance in the dance (never higher than a 15-seed). They haven’t won a tournament game since their first win in a 1983 play-in game.

In their season opener at the Carrier Dome, Robert Morris was picked apart by the Syracuse Orange by a score of 100-60. They lost seven of their first eleven games to open the season.

The Colonials average 7.5 steals per game and will try to force Villanova’s guards to turn the ball over, a feat that hasn’t been too difficult of late. If the ‘Cats can control the ball in spite of that pressure, it will bode well for their success later in the tournament.

You can expect a similar offensive and defensive philosophy to Jay Wright’s. Tough man defense paired with a free-flowing motion offense. They will use a lot of fouls and play a physical game defensively, holding opponents to 40.9% shooting from the field and 32.3% from beyond the arc. They shoot slightly better themselves, going 43.7% from the floor and 36.5% from 3-point range. They are only 66.1% from the free throw line as a team.

Their star is NEC freshman of the year, Karon Abraham, a guard who leads the team in scoring with 13.4 points per game. No other player averages double-digit points. This lack of scoring lead the Colonials to average only 68.5 points per contest. Faced with the high-powered Villanova offense, Robert Morris should be beaten into submission.

I hate to sound like commenter BossHogHazard, but this is the perfect match-up for some optimism. A win on Thursday should let the ‘Cats build up some confidence to help them get energized for the next round.

See Also:

Some Accuscore projections

Dear Wildcat fan,

Villanova University thanks you for your continued support of our athletics program. Without your help our student-athletes would not be able to achieve their goals. This is a very exciting time of year for Villanova Athletics with our Men’s basketball team entering the NCAA tournament and our spring sports beginning their runs toward conference and post-season tournaments. It is important to remember that our enthusiasm for our sports programs should not lead us into conflict with the rules and regulations of the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA), Big East Conference, and any/all other conferences with which Villanova is affiliated.

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NCAA Rules Pamphlet

Some fans and commentators have speculated that the NCAA may have created this bracket to give Duke the easiest possible ride to the Final Four, and perhaps a national title. Not many people would look at the bracket and claim that the South Region is the most difficult, or even comparatively difficult at all. Don’t let that fool you though, it won’t be a cakewalk for anyone.

So what’s the deal with the South? The region is home to three Big East schools. In addition to Villanova, both Louisville and Notre Dame could potentially make their way to Houston for a mini-Big East Tournament. Beyond that, the other major conference schools challenging Villanova for a spot in the Final Four are 1-seed Duke, 3-seed Baylor, 4-seed Purdue, 5-seed Texas A&M and 8-seed California.

It would be an unlikely upset for the Wildcats to fail to advance to the round of 32. Robert Morris could have just as easily been a 16-seed this year. Not that a 16 seed can’t give a higher seed trouble, in 2006 Villanova was given a game by another NEC conference champion in a first round game that the ‘Cats ultimately won comfortably.

While Ken Pomeroy’s ratings are hardly the only consideration in predicting wins and losses, but since the ratings are designed specifically for that purpose, it makes sense to take a look. The Wildcats are rated 15th in his rankings with the 8th best offense and 62nd best defense. Three teams in the South Region are rated higher: 4-seed Purdue, ranked 13th, 3-seed Baylor, ranked 12th, and 1-seed Duke, ranked first overall.

Purdue, however, can be largely eliminated from this conversation. They haven’t been the same team without their star, Robbie Hummel. Purdue would have to get past Duke, and perhaps California, without their best player. A tough task that would require a much better showing than their last game against Minnesota.

There is a good chance, however, that Villanova could be paired with Baylor in the Sweet 16. Baylor lost twice to K-State, at Kansas, at Texas A&M, and at home against Alabama. Two of those teams, Texas A&M (23rd) and Alabama (64th) are rated below Villanova by Pomeroy, though both have higher-rated defensive efficiency (not by much on the part of the Tide, however).

Baylor hasn’t seen very many teams that are as effective offensively as Villanova, however. Only two Big 12 teams finished in Pomeroy’s top-20 for offensive efficiency. In fact, nobody in the South Region has played opponents with more offensive ability than the Wildcats (who rank 7th overall in opponent offense).

Villanova’s other big challenger in the region will be Duke, who they could meet in the Elite Eight (unless the Blue Devils are knocked off earlier). We all remember what happened in that matchup last year, but this year’s Duke team includes two freshman (Mason Plumlee and Andre Dawkins) in its rotation. It is also a Duke team that won’t be starting Gerald Henderson or Elliot Williams, and one that doesn’t have Greg Paulus on it’s bench. Has that changed the nature of Coach K’s team? We may get a chance to find out.

Villanova is also different this year, however. From the 15th-best defense in the country to #62, the ‘Cats have lost some intensity since last year that they will need to find again to get back on top. While Villanova has dropped off on the defensive end this year, Duke has improved its efficiency on both sides of the ball. Nevertheless, Duke is one of the more inconsistent teams (according to Pomeroy, again) in the South bracket (and Baylor one of the least) and that may work to Villanova’s advantage.

In short: If your bracket doesn’t have Villanova in the Sweet 16, you can expect to drop a few points. The ‘Cats have an easy path to get that far, but to win the last four games it is going to take the best effort of the season for Villanova.