Best case: It’s a credit to Jay Wright’s yearly recruiting efforts that Villanova can lose a player like Scottie Reynolds and still look like a prospective Big East favorite. That’s the case in 2010-11, when guards Corey Fisher and Maalik Wayns and forwards Antonio Pena and Mouphtaou Yarou will look to bring some much-needed balance to Nova’s typically guard-heavy offense. If they do, Villanova shouldn’t miss a beat. In some ways, they could be even better.

Worst case: That improvement relies on one thing more than any, though: Defense. Villanova was a stellar offensive team last year, but their weak defense — caused largely by their propensity for sending their opponents to the free throw line (Nova ranked No. 329 in the country in opponents’ free throw rate) — doomed them to their lifeless finish. If Wright’s charges can’t figure out how to take a few, the Wildcats could be doomed for another good but ultimately disappointing season.

Is Brennan’s analysis on point?

The newcomers to this team, JayVaughn Pinkston and James Bell don’t seem to figure much into these preseason projections. This seems rather reasonable with Bell recovering from stress fracture surgery and based on what we have been hearing about Pinkston, he may have some work to put in to convert to a new position.

So, essentially Villanova is fielding the same team as it did in 2009-2010 — except without Scottie Reynolds or Reggie Redding on board. So, isn’t the best-case that there isn’t much drop off from the previous year?

As you know, the loss of a star player can result in a more efficient offense.

Of course, offense wasn’t really the problem in 2009-2010. Where the ‘Cats struggled most was on defense — according to Ken Pomeroy, Villanova had the 12th most efficient offense in Division I last season, but only the 62nd best defense. That was enough to lead to a second-round exit from the NCAA tournament.

from 2007-2008 to 2008-2009 there was a certain amount of roster-stability — the notable losses between those seasons were Malcolm Grant, Casiem Drummond and Andrew Ott. The key players, however, remained the same. What happened on defense and offense between those years?

In ’07-08, Pomeroy ranked the Villanova offense 61st and the defense 34th. In ’08-’09, Pomeroy ranked the offense 22nd and the defense 15th and that team appeared in the Final Four (as a side note, since 2004, every Final Four team has been ranked in the top-25 defensively by Pomeroy).

The effect of a group of players working out and playing together over a period of time is that they will play more cohesively as a unit. The 2009-2010 Wildcats saw a loss of three starters from that Final Four squad and an influx of freshmen who had to be worked into the rotation. Defense in particular tends to progress and get better over time.

So with the 2010-2011 Wildcats having largely spent the past year getting to know each other as players and working out together, is it reasonable to expect stronger defense? I’d think so.

For the Wildcats, the best case scenario is this:

Corey Fisher becomes a 1st-team All-Big East point guard, distributing the ball to balance the offense and scoring a decent amount as well. The defense gels and a consistent core group of players work to stop opposing scorers without committing the overabundance of fouls seen last year. The ‘Cats win the Big East title and make a deep NCAA run.

The worst case scenario is:

The defense never really gets any steam and the players continue to put opposition on the free-throw line at a high rate (essentially GIVING away points). Powerful offense can keep the ‘Cats in most games, but Fisher spends too much time trying to score 105 points every game and the team ultimately loses it’s balance against tougher opponents. The ‘Cats may finish well in the Big East and get a bid to the NCAA tournament, but make another early exit.

What do you think? Is my best-case scenario too optimistic? My worst case scenario not pessimistic enough? What do you think the keys are for progress from last season?

Video by Sean Donovan.

Highlights from Maalik Wayns’s freshman season, courtesy of our friends, Sean Donovan and Andrew Keefe.

Some fans and commentators have speculated that the NCAA may have created this bracket to give Duke the easiest possible ride to the Final Four, and perhaps a national title. Not many people would look at the bracket and claim that the South Region is the most difficult, or even comparatively difficult at all. Don’t let that fool you though, it won’t be a cakewalk for anyone.

So what’s the deal with the South? The region is home to three Big East schools. In addition to Villanova, both Louisville and Notre Dame could potentially make their way to Houston for a mini-Big East Tournament. Beyond that, the other major conference schools challenging Villanova for a spot in the Final Four are 1-seed Duke, 3-seed Baylor, 4-seed Purdue, 5-seed Texas A&M and 8-seed California.

It would be an unlikely upset for the Wildcats to fail to advance to the round of 32. Robert Morris could have just as easily been a 16-seed this year. Not that a 16 seed can’t give a higher seed trouble, in 2006 Villanova was given a game by another NEC conference champion in a first round game that the ‘Cats ultimately won comfortably.

While Ken Pomeroy’s ratings are hardly the only consideration in predicting wins and losses, but since the ratings are designed specifically for that purpose, it makes sense to take a look. The Wildcats are rated 15th in his rankings with the 8th best offense and 62nd best defense. Three teams in the South Region are rated higher: 4-seed Purdue, ranked 13th, 3-seed Baylor, ranked 12th, and 1-seed Duke, ranked first overall.

Purdue, however, can be largely eliminated from this conversation. They haven’t been the same team without their star, Robbie Hummel. Purdue would have to get past Duke, and perhaps California, without their best player. A tough task that would require a much better showing than their last game against Minnesota.

There is a good chance, however, that Villanova could be paired with Baylor in the Sweet 16. Baylor lost twice to K-State, at Kansas, at Texas A&M, and at home against Alabama. Two of those teams, Texas A&M (23rd) and Alabama (64th) are rated below Villanova by Pomeroy, though both have higher-rated defensive efficiency (not by much on the part of the Tide, however).

Baylor hasn’t seen very many teams that are as effective offensively as Villanova, however. Only two Big 12 teams finished in Pomeroy’s top-20 for offensive efficiency. In fact, nobody in the South Region has played opponents with more offensive ability than the Wildcats (who rank 7th overall in opponent offense).

Villanova’s other big challenger in the region will be Duke, who they could meet in the Elite Eight (unless the Blue Devils are knocked off earlier). We all remember what happened in that matchup last year, but this year’s Duke team includes two freshman (Mason Plumlee and Andre Dawkins) in its rotation. It is also a Duke team that won’t be starting Gerald Henderson or Elliot Williams, and one that doesn’t have Greg Paulus on it’s bench. Has that changed the nature of Coach K’s team? We may get a chance to find out.

Villanova is also different this year, however. From the 15th-best defense in the country to #62, the ‘Cats have lost some intensity since last year that they will need to find again to get back on top. While Villanova has dropped off on the defensive end this year, Duke has improved its efficiency on both sides of the ball. Nevertheless, Duke is one of the more inconsistent teams (according to Pomeroy, again) in the South bracket (and Baylor one of the least) and that may work to Villanova’s advantage.

In short: If your bracket doesn’t have Villanova in the Sweet 16, you can expect to drop a few points. The ‘Cats have an easy path to get that far, but to win the last four games it is going to take the best effort of the season for Villanova.

What does this team need?

Villanova has lost 5 of its last 7 games.

Corey Stokes was on fire against Marquette as a “third option”, and the rest of the team shot well, but that wasn’t enough.

In an effort to compensate for the lack of size, the Wildcats find themselves playing catchup on the perimeter where players go on an offensive tear (see Johnson-Odom, Darius; see Walker, Kemba; see Fernandez, Juan).

Is Antonio Pena not stepping up enough down low? Is Mouphtaou Yarou not getting enough burn?

Is there an overall lack of intensity on defense?

Put on your best bespoke suit and Play Armchair Coach…

With the regular season over, there are only two more “guaranteed” games left (guaranteed is in quotes because the NCAA tournament isn’t technically guaranteed unless Villanova wins the Big East tournament, but is virtually guaranteed). This means that if Villanova were to lose both games, Reynolds would have to average 29.5 points in those games. Assuming three more games, he would need 19.6 points per game, etc.

Can it be done?

I decided to take a different look at the Big East tournament. Assuming that all of the higher seeds win otherwise, Villanova can expect to open the tournament against Marquette, followed by a game against Syracuse and if they made the Big East Final, a game against Pitt.

So how did Scottie perform against those teams? He had 23 points in the conference-opener in Wisconsin, but only 15 points in the rematch with Marquette at the Pavilion (for an average of 19). Reynolds also had 20 points against Pittsburgh and 16 at Syracuse.

If history repeats itself (and it doesn’t ever necessarily do that), Scottie Reynolds could look at somewhere between 51 and 59 points by playing three more games in the Big East tournament. A run to the Big East final, therefore, would seem to make it likely that Scottie Reynolds would surpass Kittles at the top of the all-time scoring list.

There are too many possibilities to go over all of the potential upsets, but to consider a few: Scottie Reynolds had 18 points against UConn, 27 and 24 against Georgetown (average of  25.5), and 21 and 17 against West Virginia (average of 19).

Scottie Reynolds probably can’t get to the top without winning a game or two in these tournaments. With a couple wins, however, it may be inevitable. Of course, if history truly does repeat itself, Villanova will not reach the Big East final. Lets hope it does not repeat.

After a tough stretch, Villanova has fallen to #9 in both polls and is a likely 2-seed in the NCAA tournament, rather than the 1-seed they had previously been looking forward to. Any hope of winning the Big East regular season title is gone now that Syracuse has pulled away in that race.

Now we’re in March, and the Wildcats just barely survived a scare from the Bearcats. Scary. The wheels aren’t off the wagon yet, however, and last night’s game may have shown us that.*

Defensively we saw smart play at times, allowing Cincy to miss deep shots for much of the game. From beyond the arc the Bearcats normally hit about about 30% of their shots, but were 23% last night. The Villanova defense sagged and clogged entry lanes to try to keep Cincy players from getting the ball inside. Deonta Vaughn, who had 14 points in the first half scored only 4 in the second.

While the strategy was “smart” (according to Mike DeCourcy, anyway), it wasn’t tremendously more effective than our standard performances this year. Before the game, Ken Pomeroy had Villanova rated 55th in defensive efficiency, and afterwards the ‘Cats dropped to 58th.** Nevertheless, when I first looked at the Pomeroy ratings at the beginning of February his computer had Villanova’s defense rated 69th, which shows at least some improvement over the course of the season.

More importantly, however, this game saw the Villanova offense get back on track. An offense that had been ranked within the top-3 in the country in Pomeroy’s offensive efficiency rankings had slipped to #6 before last night’s game. More notably, however, a team that had 6 players averaging double-digit points at the beginning of the conference season, had declined to just three players who averaged more than ten points by the end of February.

Last night, however, six players finished the game with double-digit points. Furthermore, Villanova won this game despite the fact that Scottie Reynolds didn’t score a single point in the first half. Reynolds did manage to rack up 17 points by the end of the game, but the team showed that they didn’t need Scottie to provide their offense.

More importantly, when Cincy played zone defense last night, Villanova didn’t seem lost like they did against Syracuse. Sure Cincy’s defense isn’t as highly rated as the Syracuse zone, but Villanova handled it far better, getting into the lane and attacking the zone from there.

As important as defense is, you won’t win a game if you can’t score points. Having a balanced attack that can adjust to handle tough defense is a must if the Wildcats hope to make a splash in the postseason.

Also, while Corey Fisher lead the team with 0 turnovers, Scottie Reynolds lead the team with 5 assists. That was his best assist/turnover ratio in conference play (though not his season high for assists). If Scottie can continue to protect and distribute the ball like that, it will go a long way toward making the ‘Cats a dangerous foe in the Big East and NCAA tournaments. It may even improve our defense, points off of turnovers are difficult to defend, so limiting turnovers will make it easier to hold off opponents.

Furthermore, last night we saw Mouph Yarou continue his streak of solid play with 10 points and 2 blocked shots in his 25 minutes. Wayns also played 13 minutes, and though he didn’t manage to score, he looked pretty good out there on the court, dishing out three assists to one turnover.

Stokes even managed to look more like his old self last night, shooting 55.6% from the floor and 50% on 3-point attempts. He also added 4 rebounds.

There is still some work to be done on defense this year, but there is a lot of good so far. The Wildcats will have to adjust quickly to make a deep tournament run, but such an adjustment is not nearly as unthinkable as it was on Saturday night.

———-

* In fact, the Wildcats may have even exceeded expectations (as Dick Jerardi points out), since Pomeroy had projected a 20-10 (9-9 Big East) record for Villanova just before Christmas.

** I really wish that I could get “historical KenPom data so that I could see the changes in raw scores rather than relying on my pre-game write up to provide me with his pre-game rankings.

The Bearcats have something far more meaningful to play for: Cincy still has a small hope of earning a bid to the NCAA tournament. They need a big win this week to keep their bubble inflated. You can expect them to give Villanova everything they’ve got in front of a home crowd.

Cincy has three players who average double-digit points, including diaper dandy Lance Stephenson, who leads the offense with 11.6 points per game and adding 5.2 rebounds and 2.4 assists. Guard Deonta Vaughn isn’t too far behind with 11.3 points, 3.6 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game, while forward Yancy Gates averages 10.6 points and 6.1 rebounds. Forward Rashad Bishop adds 8.1 points and 4.6 rebounds per game as well.

The Bearcats have four players averaging over 20 minutes per game, and another six who average over 10 minutes.

The team shoots 62.1% from the free throw line, but they have two above average free throw shooters in Yancy Gates (80%) and Dion Dixon (72.9%). They shoot 44.4% from the floor with Gates again being the team leader at 56.3%. From beyond the arc, the Bearcats are a sub-par 29.7% on the season. Their best shooters from deep are Jaquon Parker (35.7%) and Deonta Vaughn (33.3%).

The team’s overall assist/turnover ratio is 1/1, which is now the same as Villanova’s ratio.

Cincinnati is a good rebounding team. On average, they out-rebound their Big East opponents 39.6 to 33.9 rebounds per game (42.7-35 for all opponents). That is a much better rebounding margin than Pitt, UConn or Syracuse this season. Jay Wright will likely continue to give freshman Mouphtaou Yarou playing time in an attempt to counter.

Ken Pomeroy ranks the Bearcat offense 100th in the country (Villanova is 6th), and their defense 47th (Villanova is 55th). Despite having a higher defensive efficiency rating and home court advantage, Pomeroy’s computer only gives Cincinnati a 38% chance of beating the Wildcats.

This game is a good opportunity for Jay Wright to get the team to work on their defense. Perhaps more-so than that, however, the ‘Cats need to work on balancing the offense more. Earlier in the season there were (at times) five or six Wildcats players averaging double-digit scoring, but now it is only three.*

Don’t forget to get your picks in for Ed’s Closest to the Pin Contest.

*Of course the 2008-2009 Wildcats were similarly situated with most of the points coming from Reynolds, Fisher and Dante Cunningham (compared to this year’s top three of Reynolds, Fisher and Pena), and they did just fine. At 16.1 ppg (1.32 PPS), however, Cunningham was more of a factor in the paint than Pena at 11.1 ppg (Pena has been more effective when he does get the ball, at 1.59 PPS)

Update 11:50AM - Just to clarify the Big East tournament seeding situation: Villanova has locked up a top-4 seeding for the conference tournament. Pitt and WVU have probably done the same, but they are the only ones who can pass Villanova right now. Pitt should be favored to win it’s next two, which would put them at 13-5. West Virginia only has one game remaining, and can only get to 13-5 by winning.

By winning both games this week, Villanova would get to 14 wins in the Big East, which will be more than any other team can get to. If the ‘Cats lose tonight, they can still remain ahead of WVU by beating them at the weekend (on head-to-head), but if they lose to WVU, the tiebreaker becomes their record against Pitt. If the ‘Cats lose to WVU and Pitt wins out (as predicted), Villanova will finish the season in 4th place. If the ‘Cats lose tonight, but beat WVU, they will be in 3rd place unless Pitt loses to either Providence or Rutgers this week.

The Fruit have their share of notable wins this season (as well as notable losses), and come into this game with a 26-2 record (13-2 in conference). They are one game ahead of Villanova in the hunt for the Big East title, making this game every bit as meaningful as the build-up would have you believe.

Syracuse have five players averaging double-digit points and one who is just behind at 8.9ppg. Wesley Johnson is the team’s MVP, averaging 15.8 points, 8.7 rebounds and 2.4 assists per contest. Andy Rautins and his fauxhawk-mullet combo are clocking in at 11.8 points, 3.2 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game while teaming up with Scoop Jardine (7.7ppg, 4.6ast) at the point. Forwards Kris Joseph, Arinze Onuaku and Rick Jackson are all averaging 10 or more points per game and at least 5 rebounds per game (with Jackson averaging seven boards).

The seven players mentioned above all play more than 21 minutes per game. Only two other players average a significant number of minutes: Mookie Jones (10.9 mins) and DaShonte Riley (10.2).

The Orange shoots 67% as a team from the free throw line. Four of their players, however shoot notably better than average. Andy Rautins is a 79.4% shooter from the charity stripe. Wes Johnson hits 77.6%, Scoop Jardine hits 73.6% and Kris Johnson has connected on 72.4% of his free throws. Putting any of these players on the line too many times will probably result in another disappointing loss.

‘Cuse averages 39.5 rebounds per game in Big East play, out-rebounding their conference opponents by about 2.6 rebounds per game. Villanova has averaged a rebounding differential of 3.2 this season.

The key to this game will be to break Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 Zone defense. In order to do so, the Wildcats will have to be able to hit their shots from beyond the arc (not the easiest of tasks in the Dome). Against the zone, you need to take control the middle, where you will either get an easy shot, or draw a defender away from the perimeter to open up a jumpshot on the wing. To ensure that the deep shot is open, therefore, our guards need to try and drive the lane to get into that open space.

The goal of the zone is to force you to take more difficult shots. A lot of the time, that shot is going to be from deep. You need good passing to get the ball to the open man, and good shooting to make the tough shots.

Moreso than that, however, the ‘Cats need to play very tough defense. The Syracuse offense is well balanced and our man-to-man scheme has to work on five men at the same time. The pattern for beating Syracuse seems to be to shoot well from beyond the arc and to prevent the Fruit from making the easy shots themselves.

As for Scottie Reynold’s countdown: he was held to 10 points in both meetings with Syracuse last season, even while the ‘Cats shot over 50% in each contest.

See also:

Closest to the Pin Contest

How to Beat a 2-3 Zone Defense [Video]

Stopping Syracuse’s 2-3 Zone [ESPN Video]

Weekend Watch by Jay Bilas [ESPN]

I Bleed Blue and White’s “Keep your enemies closer”

Coach’s Clipboard: The 4-out 1-in Zone Offense

By who else? Sean Donovan

In case you missed it: Sean also did one for Scottie Reynolds.