Wisdom of Crowds Recap – Part I: The Guards
Five weeks ago, inspired by the best selling book, The Wisdom of Crowds, we set out to test author James Surowiecki’s central thesis that by averaging the individual predictions of a group of independently thinking people, groups can make more accurate predictions than experts working alone. We conducted our test by polling the VUHoops readers, asking them to predict the minutes per game (MPG) of each player on Nova’s roster for next season. The polls are now closed, but we’ll have to wait until the season ends to assess whether there is, indeed, wisdom in the VUHoops crowd. Until then, we have some interesting scenarios to ponder, including what combinations of players will be on the floor to account for all those MPGs we predicted for each player.
We had to make a few computations to translate the readers’ votes into player MPGs. For you diehard statisticians, our methodology will be fully described in Part III of our recap, which will be posted next weekend. To the other more trusting readers, we offer the assurance that we validated our methodology with greyCat, editor of the outstanding and quantitatively-oriented blog, Villanova by the Numbers. In this installment, we review the MPG results for the guards; forwards & centers will be posted later this week.
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SCOTTIE REYNOLDS: 31.5 MPG … ▼0:42 from 2008-09 … projected games played = 38
Stan’s Take: “[Scottie] gets about the same amount of time over the course of the season, barring injuries. I just don’t see JW cutting back or “sacrificing” those points or any of his game. He is a glue guy. He is the guy who is going to direct traffic.”
Games Played Assumption: Plays all 38 games, as was case last year
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COREY FISHER: 28.5 MPG … ▲4:12 from 2008-09 … projected games played = 38
Joegrane’s Take: “I think Jay has to find some minutes for Wayns to protect the team in the event of an early exit [to the NBA] by Fisher after next season. I would do that through a modest reduction in Scottie’s minutes, while not increasing the minutes for Reggie and only slightly increasing the minutes for Cory Fisher.”
Games Played Assumption: Plays all 38 games, as was case last year
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COREY STOKES: 24.7 MPG … ▲1:54 from 2008-09 … projected games played = 38
Paul ‘91’s Take: “I’d like to see Stokes improve his ability to create open jumpers in the half court. I think a small improvement here could lead to great improvement in his overall stats and MPG.”
Games Played Assumption: Plays all games, as was case last year
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REGGIE REDDING: 24.1 MPG … ▼4:42 from 2008-09 … projected games played = 27
Stan’s Take: “I just don’t see that many minutes for Reggie. We have too many guys coming in who can do things well. They are going to get their chance because Reggie is out until December 18.”
Nick ’09’s Take: “If you get a chance to look back at the tournament games, Redding was absolutely dynamic. If he works on his shot and his confidence, I think there’s more than decent chance that he becomes a “go-to-guy.”
Games Played Assumption: Based on last year, 11 games will be played prior to December 18, when Reggie’s suspension officially ends.
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DOMINIC CHEEK: 15.8 MPG … did not play last season … projected games played = 28
Derp’s Take: “I think Cheek gets a pretty decent amount of time this season. There aren’t too many minutes to go around, but St. Anthony guys seem to be incredibly well prepared for the college game and I don’t think he’s an exception.”
Games Played Assumption: Assume comparable to Kyle Lowry’s freshman year
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MAALIK WAYNS: 14.7 MPG … did not play last season … projected games played = 28
Sarge’s Take: “Wayns has so much upside. He’s going to be a better PG than Fisher or Scottie because of his pass-first mentality and his ability to get to the hoop with ease. I love that is he great defensively and his court vision could be the best on the team.”
Games Played Assumption: Assume comparable to Kyle Lowry’s freshman year
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JASON COLENDA: 1.8 MPG … ▲ 0:30 from 2008-09 … projected games played = 22
Nervous Nelly’s Take: “Jason must score a field goal this year!”
Games Played Assumption: Plays in 22 games, one more than last year (Senior Night start)
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